March 18, 2007
Let’s tone down the noise a bit
I’m a big fan of loudness in most of its forms, but today I’m suffering from a bit too much noisy rhetoric from all over the place. There’s the discussion of the impact of the surge’s first month and whether or not to believe the new Palestinian government. Both of these situations are being talked about right now, but none of the statements carries near the importance of the actions that must come.
The comments being made today should just be filed away to be compared when the outcomes are known. Neither of these stories is close to over, but it seems like there’s lots of interest in talking about how they might conclude.
Let’s start in Iraq where General David Petraeus is providing a measuredly upbeat assessment of the first month of the surge to control Baghdad. Petraeus is careful with how he frames things, but he cites some “encouraging signs”. The problem with all this talk is that it buries the lead. He says he can’t really assess the impact of the full surge until “early June, we should then have everyone roughly in place - and that will allow us to establish the density in partnership with Iraqi security forces that you need to really get a good grip on the security situation.”
So, we don’t know how it will look until we get all the boots on the streets two-and-a-half months hence… Then why are we bothering to offer any comment on how it’s going and why are you already asking for additional troops. Regardless of this, we really wont know if this surge plan is going to work until we get the point where the soldiers are being removed from the streets. Of course things will quiet down with our soldiers holding down every corner. Some of the people are there to fight us, but many are just fighting each other. They’ll lay low during the surge and unless there’s diplomatic work done to settle their issues before the surge ends, it’s not likely to work.
Then you’ve got the newly formed Palestinian unity government bringing together opposition political movements. Of course the histories of both Hamas and Fatah are both violent and while Fatah has managed to deal with Israel, Hamas has yet to even officially acknowledge the country’s existence. While Fatah has publicly renounced terrorist attacks on Israel, Hamas has very explicitly maintained their right to armed struggle of all kinds.
Now that they’ve formed this government and they want the international community to lift sanctions and let the monetary aid resume a-flowing. Of course they’ve steadfastly refused to, as a new official unity government, meet the international standard of recognizing their would be neighbor and renouncing terror and violence. Once again this is not a case of what people are going to say now. This new government will prove what it is worth by its actions.
Norway jumped to be the first to recognize this government and lift its sanctions, but most nations seem to be treading a bit more cautiously. If this new government shows a willingness and ability to stop rocket attacks on Israel from the north of Gaza and votes to recognize Israel’s existence then the rest of the world should ease up the pressure and encourage this more peaceful independence movement. However, if the new government presides over the more of the same revolution through sporadic attacks with random targets, the ostracization should continue.
The Palestinian people can do a lot to forward their quest for independence via a massive peaceful movement, but thus far none of their leaders has even shown an inclination in that direction. Until there’s actual action, there’s little reason to put much stock in the statements being made.