November 14, 2006
OK, sometimes my predictions miss their mark by a tiny bit
Well my dire predictions of calamitous world war in the middle east from earlier this year have quite obviously been proven untrue thus far. Israel pulled out of Lebanon and the fighting with Palestinian forces has settled into the deadly simmer that’s become the norm during the last few years. And, of course, no wider multi-nation conflicts have broken out in the region, unless you’re counting the ongoing clash between the Coalition of the Willing and the various violence groups in Iraq, but that conflict started before I made my predictions so it can’t count.
My vacation is still on, and in a week I head over to Israel. When I tell people about the trip, the first thing I hear is “be careful.” I understand the sentiment behind that, but it still seems strange every time I hear it. Sure there’s a number of unresolved wars on that country’s borders and suicide bombings are a lot more common in Israel right now, but I don’t get the feeling I’m headed somewhere especially dangerous.
Maybe it’s because the violence in Israel has been going on for so long that it’s almost like background noise. It happens, and you hear about every successful bombing or horrific Israeli response that takes the lives of Palestinian civilians, but the way things are going that might just be the status quo for quite some time.
A wider conflict has few benefits for any of the players. It’s also obvious that the current strategies being employed by everyone involved are not working. The armed resistence of the Palestinians has gained them little beyond their growing self-righteous indignation during the last 40 years. Their uncompromising stances in the political arenas have earned them just as little, yet they continue to make the same demands and deny the legitimacy of Israel’s existence.
Israel’s had just as little success in their efforts. Checkpoints and police state occupations inspired greater hatred and violence. Military responses to terrorist attacks have earned them the world’s scorn and political proposals have been met by turned backs. Building a wall has not created a successful neighborly relationship and pulling out of Palestinian areas has done nothing to slow the rockets and bombs.
Both sides remain steadfast in their positions and continue to place their faith in an eventual triumph by military means. Heading over that way might be putting me closer to that conflict, but it hardly feels like I’m headed toward any more danger than what I face during my daily drive to work with thousands of other under rested motorists sleepily lurching along the highway. The conflict and violence in Israel is just part of the way things are.
The level of conflict is rises and fall, but neither side is poised to topple the other any time soon and every time things escalate they realize just how much worse it could be. No one seems to want to try peaceful resistance to their opposition and there’s really no way to know when things might burst into a bad period. So, I’m preparing to head over their wile headlines talk about Hamas refusing to recognize Israel, but possibly participating in a government that just might.
I have no clue what that means, and suspect it means nothing, but I don’t get the sense it’s going to change anything. Millions of people in the region go about their lives every day and I figure it’ll be just fine to join them for a little while.