July 27, 2006
My grim assessment
It’s looking less and less likely that my planned vacation to Israel will take place, but November is a long way off and if the world and I are a little lucky, maybe this seeming prelude to World War III can fizzle out as fast as the whole thing flared up. I mean Dick Cheney was dead on with his assessment about the last throes of the Iraqi insurgency, so maybe Condoleezza Rice will be as prescient with her remarks comparing the Israeli Hezbollah conflict as the birth pangs of a new Middle East.
Unfortunately I can’t share such optimism. I’m not sure if a full scale world conflict will break out in the next four months, and there’s a decent chance things will still be calm enough for the trip to go on as planned, but the fallacy in my first sentence leads me to believe that things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.
You see this situation in Israel that’s wrested the world’s attention away from the budding nukes of Iran and North Korea is not new and did not spring up from nowhere shouting “Surprise!” It’s not as simple as Muslim’s versus Jews or terrorists versus sovereign nations or even dictatorships versus democracies. This conflict goes back a long way and includes allies and players from around the globe. Like all conflicts of this scale it’s about intolerance, world domination and a desire to eradicate anyone who doesn’t look, act, or pray like you. Those inclinations combined with the destructive power of modern weapons technology make a nasty mix for the world to swallow.
Israel’s current assault on Hezbollah’s guerrilla positions in Lebanon was sparked by an attack on Israeli soil. While a majority of the world is condemning the Lebanese civilian casualties and calling Israel’s response disproportionate to the Hezbollah aggression, Our Fine President see’s a parallel to what else, the Sept. 11 attacks, and is backing the response as a part of the global war on terror. For him it’s all pretty simple. As he explained it, “the root cause is terrorist activities.” He never quite gets around to wondering about the root cause of those activities. I guess he just figures it’s evil and that’s that.
Of course the world isn’t quite so simple and this conflict playing out in Lebanon and Israel is connected to the one we’ve got going on in Iraq. While that one wasn’t really as well connected to our mess in Afghanistan as many would like you to believe, it is now that Al Qaida is actively calling for Jihad against Israel. Our Fine President is blaming Hezbollah’s aggression on it’s financial backers in Iran. While we’re not at war with them actively, we are heavily engaged in hostile diplomacy. We’ve got some of that going on with North Korea too, so Our Fine President’s whole Axis of Evil is now in play.
Iran is influencing the conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq while remaining on the sidelines to tinker with their nuclear weapons and trade notes with an excessively armed North Korea. Al Qaida wants to get in on the game too, but who knows what kind of role they’ll be able to play as more conventional warfare takes to the field. All of the conflicts are starting to look very connected, so a pause in the fighting in Lebanon is not likely to stop the momentum toward wider war.
There is no single cause to all this and no simple solution to satisfy everyone. There are legitimate grievances on both sides, as well as unforgivable atrocities justified by irrational but unwavering beliefs. A solution is not likely to come by approaching the conflict as right versus wrong. The people we’re in conflict with have the same resolute stance as Our Fine President. They believe they’re fighting on the side of good against a great evil just as he does. So if things continue on toward a bleak and violent future, the fact that neither side seems to look at the nuances of things doesn’t bode well for a quick resolution. As the sides of this conflict are taking shape, I’m not too inspired by how the rest of the world feels about our nation’s attitude and actions.
Of course if nothing catastrophic comes of all this and an overwhelming storm of reason brings amicable feelings to successful peace negotiations, I’ll be looking pretty dumb for have written this whole diatribe. I think it might be rather nice to be pretty dumb right now.